With any thunderstorm threat now over, it’s safe to say this was a semi-bust. We still had severe weather, but not to the original forecasted extent. The reason for that would be the storms that arrived around 8 am and continued through 2 pm. Those initial storms struck when the atmosphere was not primed, nor did they give the atmosphere time to destabilize after their passing.

The HRRR vs NAM models was what made this tricky. The NAM and HRRR were the primary models being watched, however it appears the SPC had favored the NAM model. The NAM showed that the morning line was dipping south, if not arriving as scattered convection which would have limited impact.

I myself was flipping between the HRRR and NAM models and was leaning more toward the NAM model.

However, around 8 am tornado watches were issued for lower Michigan as the line that HRRR had predicted started to move in.

Although it was a semi-bust, don’t get us wrong, the threat and ingredients were definitely there, but as long as one piece of the puzzle is missing or gets lost, the whole bigger-picture plan will not come to light.

With this in mind, I will always tell you the risks that the SPC sets on the table bluntly, and when things bust, I will admit when I was wrong and explain why.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Website Protected by Spam Master