Early AM: While Michigan’s August severe weather season has started off as impressive; showing us that mother nature means business, we are in for day two of possible severe weather as a cold front bringing relief will drop through the area tomorrow.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of lower Michigan under a Marginal Risk, with the exception of a line from Pinconning to Clare and Cadillac north and eastward under a Slight Risk.

The area under the Slight Risk is also under a 2% chance of a tornado, 15% chance of damaging winds and all of Michigan under a 5% chance of large hail.

As quoted from the SPC’s previous and most updated outlook issuance:

As temperatures warm through the 80s it appears convection should gradually develop southwest across southern Lake MI into IL by late afternoon/early evening. While this activity will be more removed from the short wave, a few strong/severe storms may be noted. Wind is the primary concern, though marginal severe hail threat also exists.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

With this being said, expect the same scenario as yesterday, with a possibly more defined line of storms.

Early PM: The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the risk in the thumb to a Slight Risk. While the tornado risk seems to be north of Lapeer/Genesee counties, all the other risks are higher, and in play.

Be weather aware this afternoon and evening, as the main time for storms appears to be 4pm to 10pm.

This post will be updated as new outlooks are published.

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