Early AM: While Michigan’s August severe weather season has started off as impressive; showing us that mother nature means business, we are in for day two of possible severe weather as a cold front bringing relief will drop through the area tomorrow.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of lower Michigan under a Marginal Risk, with the exception of a line from Pinconning to Clare and Cadillac north and eastward under a Slight Risk.
The area under the Slight Risk is also under a 2% chance of a tornado, 15% chance of damaging winds and all of Michigan under a 5% chance of large hail.
As quoted from the SPC’s previous and most updated outlook issuance:
As temperatures warm through the 80s it appears convection should gradually develop southwest across southern Lake MI into IL by late afternoon/early evening. While this activity will be more removed from the short wave, a few strong/severe storms may be noted. Wind is the primary concern, though marginal severe hail threat also exists.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
With this being said, expect the same scenario as yesterday, with a possibly more defined line of storms.
Early PM: The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the risk in the thumb to a Slight Risk. While the tornado risk seems to be north of Lapeer/Genesee counties, all the other risks are higher, and in play.
Be weather aware this afternoon and evening, as the main time for storms appears to be 4pm to 10pm.