Spring has sprung! Days are longer, frogs are croaking and the clouds are thundering. That’s right, Wednesday looks to be a severe weather day for us in Michigan. We are 3 days out and the models, paired with National Weather Service discussions are looking rather interesting. Let’s break it down.
Daytime heating
Currently, as we look towards Wednesday, we are focusing on the first thing. Daytime heating. As we stand right now, the models show that by 1 pm, we will be near the lower 70s in most of lower Michigan. Around 2 or 3 pm, we drop to the upper 60s, but keep them all the way until late Wednesday night.
Moisture/Humidity
Another key factor in storm development is how much moisture can the atmosphere acquire. The models indicate dewpoints near 60 all day, and relative humidity, surface, and upper-air at 90% to 100% all day as well.
Wind
850mb wind will be the model used for this portion. We are looking at Wednesday morning to Wednesday evening, and the model shows upper-level winds around 45kts to 50kts almost all day, which can lead to aiding thunderstorms in terms of bringing moisture and warmer air into the area.
These aren’t all of the ingredients and variables we are watching, just the ones we can try to nail down right now. All of these parameters, plus more, will be watched closely as the days pass. The Storm Prediction Center’s Day 3 Outlook for Wednesday is scheduled to be posted by at least 3:30 am.