The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has forecasted an Enhanced risk of severe weather for today, Wednesday the 26th for much of lower MI. We could see isolated tornadoes, damaging winds of 65 mph or higher, and large hail of 1 inch or greater.
The threat today, at least on the tornado side of things, seems to be more impressive than in past times of tornado development.
The storm initiation will be fueled by warm temperatures near 90, ample moisture, and CAPE values near 3000 J/kg, meaning the storms will have ample fuel to run off of. Storms should start around 2 pm with the main modes being discrete or multicellular storms, those possibly being supercells with large hail as well as a tornado threat. Around
evening, we should see a transition to a line, with increased damaging wind risk in any bowing segments.
Later expectance is that either a Tornado Watch or a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued in the early afternoon, maybe around 12pm or so, we will have to monitor the Mesoscale Discussions for talk of watches by then.
However, our friend at Nadocast, a page that issues tornado probabilities via machine learning post-processing of public weather simulations, shows a higher tornado risk for parts of the lower MI area, with yellow denoting a 10% risk.
Overall, stay weather aware from about 2 pm to 9 pm and we will monitor the latest information posted by the NWS and SPC.